Climate migrants' survival threatened by "C" shaped anthropic barriers

In spite of studies on range shifts being very abundant, the problematic of dispersal barriers limiting climate migrants' movement is yet to be fully included into any modelling framework. For this reason, we introduce a novel concept whereby the interplay of range shifts and dispersal barriers of a particular spatial configuration can threaten the persistence of populations under a climate change scenario. We named this concept "C-trap", after the topographic shape of such barrier. After elaborating on the theoretical features of C-traps, we provide a simple method that combines environmental data and future climate projections to locate them spatially. As an application, we then use such method to determine where high C-trap densities have the potential to further threaten the conservation of endangered, endemic animals across the world's terrestrial realm, in a climate change scenario. Our methodology detected potential C-traps for the study system with areas of high densities mostly located in east Europe, south Asia and North America. However, finer scale analyses are required to assess the magnitude of the threat locally. Dispersal barriers add an additional dimension to range shift studies, and can ultimately prevent otherwise successful climate migrants from tracking their climatic niche. The methodology presented here is simple and flexible enough to be adapted to a wide range of taxa and locations, and to be implemented further to account for the fast development of range shift modelling. We, therefore, encourage researchers to include the effects of anthropogenic dispersal barriers in range shifts models and in the planning of effective conservation strategies with reference to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved